Though Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State still has about 30 months left in his tenure, political activity has already started to heat up as potential candidates for the 2027 gubernatorial election begin to make their moves.
Among the names circulating as possible contenders from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are President Bola Tinubu’s son, Seyi Tinubu; current Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa; former Lagos Governor Akinwunmi Ambode; and Senator Tokunbo Abiru.
On the opposition side, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 2023 gubernatorial candidate, Abdulaziz Olajide Adediran, known as Jandor, and Labour Party’s Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour are also eyeing the governorship seat.
As the political landscape takes shape, several factors will influence who secures the nomination from each party and ultimately emerges as the winner. These include President Tinubu’s influence, the issue of indigeneship, religion, zoning, and the role of the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC) in the APC.
Religious Considerations and Power Dynamics
Lagos has been led by Christian governors for the past 12 years, with Sanwo-Olu succeeding fellow Christian, Akinwunmi Ambode. By 2027, some within the state’s political circles are calling for a Muslim to take over after a long stretch of Christian leadership, with discussions suggesting that Ambode could be brought back to complete a 16-year Christian rule before power shifts back to the Muslim community.
Seyi Tinubu has been receiving endorsements from various groups, while Obasa, known for his political resilience and grassroots support, has made it clear that he’s not inexperienced or too young to run for the governorship position.
2023 Power Struggles: A Precedent for 2027
The 2023 election cycle set the stage for the upcoming political battles. Sanwo-Olu’s rise to the governorship was a surprise to many, especially after the power bloc in the APC, led by now-President Tinubu, ousted Ambode. Sanwo-Olu’s emergence as a consensus candidate was a testament to Tinubu’s influence.
In 2023, there were rumors that Sanwo-Olu might be replaced during his second term bid, with figures like former Speaker Femi Gbajabiamila and former Lagos State Head of Service Hakeem Muri-Okunola allegedly in the mix. However, these claims were debunked by the individuals involved, reaffirming Sanwo-Olu’s position.
Senator Tokunbo Abiru, who has completed two terms in the Senate, has also been mentioned as a potential contender for the governorship seat.
Obasa’s Ambition and Political Influence
Speaker Mudashiru Obasa, the longest-serving speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, has addressed speculation regarding his own ambitions. Despite his involvement in political mobilization, Obasa has stated that his focus is on building the APC rather than pursuing personal ambitions.
While he acknowledged the potential for a gubernatorial bid, Obasa emphasized that the most important goal was strengthening the party. His political ties, particularly with the influential Mandate Group, have cemented his position as a key figure in Lagos politics.
Support and Backlash for Seyi Tinubu
As the race for 2027 heats up, Seyi Tinubu, son of President Bola Tinubu, has garnered support from the Coalition of Nigerian Youth Leaders (CONYL), an umbrella group representing youth across the country. However, his candidacy has also faced criticism. APC member Joe Igbokwe voiced concerns over the idea of Seyi running, questioning his readiness to govern a state as complex as Lagos. He also suggested that such endorsements could be seen as attempts to weaken President Tinubu’s position.
In response, CONYL stood by Seyi Tinubu, emphasizing his qualifications as an entrepreneur and philanthropist. The group argues that Seyi has proven his leadership capabilities and that his candidacy would not be a distraction but a natural progression in his public service journey.
The Indigeneship Debate
Meanwhile, a coalition of Lagos Indigenous Youths has raised concerns over the possibility of non-indigenes vying for the Lagos governorship. The group insists that it is time for a true Lagosian to lead the state, arguing that no genuine Lagos indigene has held the office of governor since the return to civilian rule in 1999.
The group has warned against any attempt to have individuals claim indigenous status for political gain, especially as the 2027 election approaches. This has led to further debates about who truly has the right to lead Lagos, especially regarding the sensitive issue of indigeneship.
APC’s Official Response
In reaction to the growing political rumblings, the Lagos APC has downplayed reports of an internal rivalry, particularly between Obasa and Seyi Tinubu. Party spokesperson, Seye Okadrjo, dismissed concerns that the Speaker’s comments indicated a direct challenge to Tinubu’s son. He reiterated that the APC’s focus remains on effective governance and not on prematurely engaging in 2027 politicking.
While the battle for Lagos in 2027 remains months away, the current political maneuvering indicates that it will be a fierce contest, with various factions within the APC, opposition parties, and interest groups positioning themselves for the race. How the parties navigate issues of religion, zoning, and indigeneship will likely play a decisive role in shaping the future of Lagos State politics.
